On the Heels of New Hampshire, South Carolina Primary Holds Long-Term Implications for Bush, Third-Party Expert Says

With Senator John McCain garnering, in New Hampshire, the biggest win by a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan, the dynamics of the contest for the Republican presidential nomination have changed overnight, turning the upcoming South Carolina contest into a do-or-die race for Governor George W. Bush.

"Bush must not only win South Carolina, he must do so by a significant margin," points out Smith College political scientist Howard Gold.

With polls indicating that Bush currently enjoys a large lead in South Carolina, Gold predicts that "a narrow Bush victory will be spun as an amazing comeback by McCain."
A widely cited expert on American political behavior, Gold is particularly interested in third-party politics and voting behavior, partisanship and public opinion. He is the author of "Hollow Mandates: American Public Opinion and the Conservative Shift."

Gold also cautions that South Carolina Republicans differ considerably from their New Hampshire counterparts.
"The religious right is strong in South Carolina, as is Republican party organization ­ and both are likely to rally around Bush," he notes.

McCain's presidential chances would improve considerably, Gold argues, if he abandoned hopes for the Republican nomination and ran as an Independent ­ presumably on the Reform Party ticket -- a move that wouldn't require significant campaign changes.
"McCain's candidacy has already shown tremendous strength among Independent voters, who now number around 40 percent of the electorate," Gold points out.
"His willingness to stand up to the extreme right has earned him the respect of moderates of both parties, as has his support for a limited tax cut alongside measures to protect Social Security and Medicare and to pay down the national debt."

Moreover, Gold says, McCain is the only Republican candidate to have publicly lamented the gap in America between the "haves" and "have-nots." Most importantly, his call for sweeping campaign finance reform has broad national appeal.

Gold will be following closely the primary returns on March 7, when a Super Tuesday victory for Bush could force the question of a third-party run by McCain.

"A McCain candidacy atop the Reform Party ticket could instantly transform the 2000 election into our nation's first truly competitive three-party race in nearly a century," Gold predicts.

February 7, 2000