The Power of Women Voters

Women voters hold the key to the November presidential election—and not just because there’s a woman at the top of the Democratic Party ticket.

That’s the perspective of Celinda Lake ’75, founder and president of Lake Research Partners, a top-rated Democratic survey research firm.

“Women want to be respected. It’s their No. 1 emotion,” says Lake, who founded her polling and political strategy firm in 1995. “For Democrats and progressives, the formula for success is winning women by more than you lose men.”

For Republican nominee Donald Trump, Lake highlights the need to “define his own vision for the future.” She adds, “He needs to be less divisive and more respectful—particularly of women. And he needs to lay out his economic plan.”

A Smith government major with a master’s in political science and survey research from the University of Michigan, Lake has been leading her firm’s private polling and making the media rounds in what has proved to be an unprecedented election season.

In a recent op-ed for The Economist, Lake wrote that to win, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris needs to energize “traditionally Democratic voters who have been unenthusiastic in recent years without hurting her standing with swing voters.” This means drawing older, white, less-educated women with “the right message” and establishing Harris’ economic credentials.

For Harris, “who is not that well known, the campaign is a race to define herself,” Lake explains. “Harris will win if she can define herself before Trump does.”

Here are more insights Lake shared in an interview shortly before the Democratic National Convention in August.

What’s changed the most about polling since you founded your firm?

Lake: Nobody has landlines anymore, and nobody will answer their phone or open the door. We try to reach people using multiple methods—online, cell phones, and longer survey periods. People like doing polls, but they don’t trust that the call is legitimate. We’re experimenting with text-to-online polling and trying to ensure our calls don’t come up as spam. But it’s hard, and it’s definitely more expensive.

How can we tell if a poll is accurate or trustworthy?

One key thing to consider is the aggregators—those who compile averages of various polls. In 2022, these averages were manipulated, and we didn’t have proper systems in place to handle it. What we saw was unprecedented: Republicans funded a wave of cheap, low-quality polls and released them to skew the overall averages. After the election, we urged aggregators to ensure there’s a balanced representation of polls from both sides.

I’d also encourage anyone looking at polls to pay close attention to how the questions are worded. For example, a poll might ask, “Do you want to increase or decrease spending on refugees seeking asylum?” But what if most people actually want spending to stay the same, and that option isn’t included? Look at the choices offered and think about how you would respond. Would you find yourself wondering, Wait, I want things to stay the same—how should I answer this?

What issues are voters most focused on right now?

The economy is the top issue for both candidates. Abortion and threats to democracy are also very important. On the Republican side, immigration is a focus. However, only about 10% of decision-making in the presidential race is based on issues—50% is party identification and 40% is character. 

How has the political map changed with Harris as the Democratic nominee?

The battlefield was narrowing, but it’s expanded again. It’s still about the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Arizona and Nevada are also key, along with Georgia and North Carolina. Some states that Republicans hoped to bring back into play, like Minnesota and Virginia, are no longer in contention.

Which voter groups are emerging as important in this race?

Younger voters are much more energized. Their enthusiasm for Harris has increased significantly, and younger people of color—especially younger 
Black men—are solidifying for the Democrats. Democrats’ turnout enthusiasm now matches or exceeds that of Republicans. Unmarried women under 55, who are often overlooked, are also a crucial demographic.

You mean childless cat ladies?

Exactly! We even have people introducing themselves in focus groups by whether they have cats or not.

So, women hold the key to this election?

There’s a strong possibility of a record gender gap in this election. Women are increasingly leaning toward Harris. However, the key swing vote remains divided and uncertain, particularly among older, white, non-college-educated women. Many of these women, especially those who are married, might be under pressure from their husbands to vote for Trump, but they have their own concerns and may be more sensitive to issues like racism.

And the economy is also key?

Yes, it’s the dominant issue right now. People believe the economy is in bad shape, and they’re struggling. They’re deeply worried about rising costs, wages, and how they’re going to secure a future for their children.

Is defending democracy a winning issue in this race?

Democracy is a broad issue, encompassing a wide range of concerns. For many women, it’s closely tied to abortion rights—if you can’t control your own body, how democratic is that? For Republicans, democracy often centers on concerns about election fraud and rigged results. African Americans, meanwhile, view democracy through the lens of voting rights and equal access to the ballot. For many Democrats, it’s about preventing another January 6, limiting presidential immunity, and addressing the power of the Supreme Court. When voters cite “threats to democracy” in polls, it’s important to recognize that this phrase can mean very different things depending on their perspective.

Currently, the momentum is with Harris. What does Donald Trump need to do to win?

He needs to define his vision for the future and present his economic plan. People often give Republicans the benefit of the doubt on the economy and see Trump as a wealthy businessman. However, he tends to undermine himself with erratic statements.

Why is this race so close?

Many people believe they were economically better off under Trump than under Biden. People also feel Trump “gets things done,” thinking, “He’d keep us out of wars, improve the economy, and control immigration.” In the last election, Republicans effectively portrayed Trump as strong and Biden as weak. Now, the narrative has shifted to a choice between moving forward or backward.

Social pressure plays a growing role in campaigns. When we asked people how Democratic or Republican they thought their town was, results were skewed 20 points in Trump’s favor. Why? Trump supporters were more vocal—putting up signs, flying flags, and dominating social media—while Biden supporters stayed quiet to avoid conflict. Now, the dynamic is changing as more people are openly supporting Harris, pushing back against the vocal Trump supporter in the neighborhood.

What keeps you in this field?

I’ve always loved public opinion. I acquired that love at Smith. I respect people, and I like understanding how they are thinking. I think they’re often ill-served by the political system. To me, public opinion research is a tool for representation and social change.

You founded your firm when there weren’t many women in polling. How has that changed?

There are more women in polling now, but politics remains male-dominated. Polling is great for women because we’re good listeners and can spot patterns. Women often hesitate to enter polling because they fear math, but it’s not the math that makes a good pollster. It’s having the data, which puts you in a powerful position. All the guys can be in the room fuming and pontificating and then, ultimately, someone will say, “Celinda has the data. What does she say?”